Super Bowl and January Wind up
Sunday, those who watched the “big game” saw an NFL Super Bowl lacking in drama, excitement, and a less than stellar halftime show. For my New England friends, congratulations. For my LA friends, the future is yours. It was the perfect example of the sly old fox (NE’s Belichick) schooling the young, up and comer (LA’s McVay), and the lesson was given and learned… “I was out coached”, said McVay. I have little doubt that this Rams team will see another championship game, but for the time being, the Belichick-Brady combination continues to rule the NFL roost. What kept me watching this football game, in all its Belichick inspired defensive boredom, was the idea that I was watching a historical event, a team dynasty so dominating of a professional sports league that such may not happen again in my lifetime. The only close comparison may be the Red Auerbach-Bill Russell Boston Celtics, but, at that time in the 1960’s professional sports was so much different than it is today. One basic fact that is so impressive…in Tom Brady’s 17 years in the league, he has been to the Super Bowl in 9 of those years…most quarterbacks would be credited with being “great” by getting to the playoffs 50% of their seasons, let alone ascending to the Super Bowl once or twice in their career.
January 2019 ended up being one of the best stock January market growth months in a very long time; with all the major stock indexes increasing substantially. During the month the Federal Reserve Open Market committee used the verbiage of “patience, and data-dependent,” that the markets wanted to hear, relative to future rate increases, and the stock markets applauded. It has been our opinion, since the middle of 2018, that the Fed would be more stock market accommodating in 2019 than in 2018, as the bull market grew longer in tooth, and the yield gap between the US 10 Year Treasury and similar international major 10-year yields grew, some of which are still negative in yield. I continue to believe that the most the Fed increase we may see may be one to two; to remain below FMOC “normalized” rate at less than a 3% 10-year Treasury yield.
The other major headwind, tariffs and trade. China and the United States negotiations seem to progressing, and are looking more like a soft-landing to the current import-export tariff disputes.
FYI - Retirement plans see an increase in contribution rates in 2019 – the 2019 Contribution Limits for Retirement Plans is attached.
p.s. I had a meeting last evening, and missed the both the State of the Union address, and the Washington Capitals hockey game – do you know which one I was more likely to watch in its entirety?