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Through the Looking Glass

Good day Dear Friends,

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of watching many of our local children, and young adults (the lead “Alice” going to the granddaughter of a good friend and client) perform in a local on-stage version of “Alice in Wonderland”. I am continually amazed at what stage magic can be done on a shoe-string budget. BRAVO - Tony Awards for ALL! It gives me great hope for our future when you see the young so adamantly involved in such a tough craft.

Last week we saw a modest retraction in the stock market indexes after weeks of continual index gains. There are any number of economic rationales for last week’s decline; e.g., the European Central Bank (ECB) reducing GDP estimates for 2019 and stating it will remain accommodative throughout the year…on-again/off-gain China-US trade agreement commentary, with China to US February exports down 28.6%…the OECD lowered its global economic growth forecasts for 2019 citing slower growth in China and Europe, policy uncertainty (trade, Brexit), and financial market risks; as global growth expectations were cut from 3.5% to 3.3%, with Europe driving most of the decline-the group cut its euro area growth forecast sharply, from 1.8% to 1.0%. Reductions to OECDs U.S. GDP growth were marginal…lastly, U.S. February non-Farm jobs growth came in at a paltry 20,000 jobs gained…all adding to the fuel for the stock market indexes decline.

To which I might add: these items gave an excuse for many traders, after many weeks of gains, to take some profits off the table…and to rebalance their portfolios.

Recent signs of stabilization in Europe, prospects for eventual trade/Brexit clarity, and ECB financial accommodations, all suggest the outlook for European economies may soon begin to improve…With only 20k+ US non-Farm jobs added in February, the unemployment rate FELL from 4% to 3.8%, with a high participation rate, and year over year wage growth (+3.8%) substantially higher…Retail sales in January rebounded from a lower than anticipated December…China business frontloaded exports in previous months in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs, and an increasing yuan value…all are reasonable explanations to the media headlines, and add stock to why we do not invest/trade on moments in the market, but on long-term convictions.

Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD’s) from Traditional IRA’s are an effective way for those who must take RMD’s to do so without increasing their taxable income, and potentially resulting in less taxes to Uncle Sam. I have attached a well-written brief from Lord Abbett on such QCD opportunities, should your situation necessitate. As always, call or email me if I can be of any assistance to you, your family, or your business.

Have a brilliant week, and God Bless! Warm regards,

James Anthony Pavik Sr.

President / Chief Wealth and Investment Officer

ChFEBC℠ - Chartered Federal Employee Benefits Consultant

Pavik Wealth Management, Inc.

Historic Foster-Faulkner Building

138 Main Street, Suite 104

Mail: P.O. Box 145

Mathews, Virginia 23109-0145




Follow me on Twitter: @PavikWealth

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