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Seasonal Note

Good day Dear Friends,

I hope this note finds you all well. On an Easter seasonal note: For Lent every year I try to read the complete Bible – sometimes I accomplish this goal, other times I do not – but, I always read the Gospels, and find great inspiration in all the recollections; especially those of John; and in Matthew, all of Chapter 18 – and, relative to forgiveness, “…not seven times. I say seventy times seven times”. Make of this as you will, but, I find I am blessed to make this one of my Lenten sacrifices, and every year will come out of Lent renewed in spirit.

Well, on a completely separate seasonal note. The NCAA Final Four Basketball Championship is set: Auburn plays Virginia, and Texas Tech plays Michigan State. I do not know how badly your bracket is shredded by the Elite 8 winners – mine had UVA playing Gonzaga in the final. So, I still may be ½ right…go UVA! As you all know I am riding the Hoos all the way to the Championship. Must say though, the Elite 8 Duke-MSU and UVA-Purdue match-ups were some of the best college basketball I have seen in a very, very, long time.

On the economic front, last week finished the best stock market quarterly results since 2009. I continue to believe that this stock index “Bull Market” may continue on throughout this 10th year based on existing, and currently forecasted economic data, and consumers with cash on hand. Domestically, corporate growth continues to increase year-over-year, but at a declining growth rate than previous quarters, and this is to be expected this late in the business cycle. Internationally, Europe still has its political and economic concerns relative to a Brexit, but, the EU seems to be taking a less draconian stance with the UK than in the past, by allowing the UK more time to get their house in order, and this situation resolved. Additionally, once the China-U.S. trade negotiations come to a positive fruition (which I still believe it will), this may bring the stimulus to European business (who may be more in need of normalized China trade than the U.S.) that may move the European equity markets higher. Although, still of concern is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) continued reliance on their version of monetary policy, quantitative easing; and the minimal/negative 10-year interest rates of Japan, Germany, and others. So, we will see. I remain slightly underweight total international, and underweight Europe, but overweight Asia relative to PWM normal international asset allocations within each model’s risk tolerance.

Have a brilliant week, and God Bless!

Warmest regards,

James Anthony Pavik Sr.

President / Chief Wealth and Investment Officer

ChFEBC℠ - Chartered Federal Employee Benefits Consultant

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